Whenever I read a David Smick column that does not detail the looming collapse of the global financial system, I breathe a sigh (or in this case, a half-sigh) of relief.

Smick’s latest Washington Post column starts by recounting how U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner’s assurance to a Chinese audience at Beijing University that their dollar investments were safe was greeted with laughter.

“The Chinese should be wary of such hubris,” Smick writes. “While America’s public finances are troubling, to say the least, Beijing and the rest of the world should examine the future for economies, including China’s, that have become overwhelmingly dependent on exports. Their future looks as problematic as the future of the debt-ridden United States.”

The rest of the short column distills the interconnectedness of the global financial system into a clear picture. While the conclusion is not exactly optimistic (nor should it be), it is instructive. American consumers still hold the cards, and whether or not the global financial system tumbles like a house of cards largely depends on how China, Germany, Japan, and the U.S. work – jointly – on a long overdue rebalancing.

Two weeks ago, a New York Magazine business writer offered an economic gauge I related to: “And one day I’ll realize that I haven’t thought about the economy even once, and that’ll tell me the recovery is here.”

Until then, half-sighs will have to suffice. ###