You have developed the strategic plan, but have you considered probabilistic or Monte Carlo simulations to deal with today’s uncertainty? What is the probability the economy will turn around in Q3, Q4? The DC pundits would have you believe things with 100 percent certainty, but as a business executive, what do you think? Fifty percent? More? Less?

Or have you planned for continued contractions of 1, 4, or 8 percent? Scary scenarios, but have you done a reality check with your customers, their expectations? We are currently collaborating with a utility, and they have always considered their load growth, electricity consumption, of between 1 and 3 percent per year as a given for strategic and financial planning. BUT, they were shocked to see their load growth contract 3 percent!! Does this resonate with your company? So, what do we do?

The answer? Create and run scenarios that challenge traditional assumptions, “bracket” your plan with what we shall call — for convenience — low, medium, and high scenarios. This “bracket” enables you to consider plans A, B, and C for remedial action. You are therefore not in reactive mode – no fire drills — but are able to dust off the appropriate scenario and action it. Being 1 month or 3 or 6 months behind the curve and engaged in a fire drill could be very detrimental.

So, in summary: Have you created your low, medium, and high scenarios and plans A, B, and C? ###