I am sure most of us have played Scrabble when an unsavory opponent proposes a blatant “made up” word that is worth 100 points. We smile with comfort that the rules or “order” say No, Not so fast, let’s consult the dictionary. What about today’s real world? Who took my dictionary, as the analogy goes?

Is your company finding it hard to make decisions in light of the current imbalance between order and disorder? A simple description of “order” exists when contracts, agreements, and partnerships are predictable and honored by their respective parties. An equally simple description of “dis-order” is when those basic business principles are broken. Today, is DIS-ORDER trumping ORDER? Yes.

How about an example? There once was a Car Czar, a 30-something grad student, who arbitrarily banished secured GM bondholders to the “back seat” (pardon the pun) and moved the unsecured union pension to the front of the line. The union became a major shareholder, the secured lenders “hit the road” (another bad pun). This is Dis-Order on a grand scale. Why would new rational investors buy “secured” new GM debt with the prospect of another czar making another political assignment? Dis-Order has trampled the Order. Need I go into the dealership closings?

Today, I see Dis-Order firsthand in over a dozen sectors due to health care reform, cap and trade, protectionism, nationalization (banks, insurance, car companies). How does one plan and measure performance when they could end up like the former secured credit holders?

Thus scenario planning incorporates many previously unthinkable scenarios and builds on the prior posting of plans A, B, and C. ###