While CFOs may be skeptical of pronouncements that the recession is over (see this blog post), small and midsize business owners around the world appear to glimpse some light at the end of the tunnel, particularly when it comes to global trade. On average, the 3,500 respondents to a recent HSBC survey put their confidence at 110, on a scale of 0 to 200, with 100 being neutral. While that might be just barely positive, it’s positive nonetheless.

This survey marked the first time that the U.S. was included, says William Nowicki, head of trade and supply chain for HSBC, North America. In HSBC’s spring survey, which covered seven Asian countries, “we were encouraged to find that for the most part, importers and exporters have an optimistic outlook.” The responses in this survey show that confidence continues to grow, both in Asia as well as in more developed countries like the U.S. and the U.K., Nowicki adds.

Several factors are driving the current optimism. More than half (59 percent) of respondents expect access to credit to remain the same, while one-third thought it would increase. In the U.S., nearly nine in ten expect access to credit to remain the same or increase. Nearly three times as many respondents (44 percent) expect trade volumes to increase, compared to the 15 percent who see a contraction looming. About two-thirds expect buyer risk to remain stable, although 17 percent see it growing.

That’s not to say that business owners’ forecasts are entirely rosy. Fluctuations in foreign exchange top the list of worries of business owners in Brazil, the U.K., and China and Southeast Asia. In the U.S. and Australia, it’s weak demand that is keeping business owners up at night.

Overall, however, the slightly positive outlook indicates that business activity is backing away from the brink — and just might be picking up. ###