Are (traditional) forecasts meaningful?

Coauthors Frederick Funston and Stephen Wagner ask this question early in their new book Surviving and Thriving in Uncertainty: Creating the Risk Intelligent Enterprise.

They pose the question in a chapter that describes why, and how, conventional risk management has failed.

“The record of forecasting in business, investing, and economics is not good, particularly when it comes to crises, which are by definition improbable and, well, unpredictable,” Funston and Wagner write.

In other words, the failure of conventional forecasting is a prime reason why conventional risk management has failed. more

The IRS is pulling out all the stops to get the word out about the new healthcare tax credit for small businesses provided by the Affordable Care Act, and has released new guidance covering a range of questions that Congress didn’t address. If your organization has 25 employees or fewer, offers health benefits, and covers more than 50 percent of the insurance cost, you might want to check out the IRS’s Affordable Care Act page, which includes links to detailed guidance, a simplified 3-step guide, and frequently asked questions. more

If succession planning is part of your job duties – and it should be – thank your lucky stars that you’re not in the utility sector.

Many utilities face what TowersWatson’s Ilene Gochman describes as a “triple whammy” succession planning challenge: rapidly graying leadership ranks; unique, industry-specific requirements for technical skills; and an imposing set of looming changes that will reshape the industry (carbon legislation, a nuclear power renaissance, surging demand for alternative energy, and more).

For this reason, the utility sector also serves as a rich source of succession planning approaches, practices, and thinking. more

I glanced at the New York Times list of nonfiction best-sellers and was pleasantly surprised to find a business book, Michael Lewis’s The Big Short, near the top of the heap.

Lewis’s current book examines the forward-looking folks who saw the financial crisis coming and made billions from it. One of his earlier books, Liar’s Poker, also details Wall Street mind-sets – and, in doing so, also happens to describe what’s wrong with the traditional budgeting process.

Really. more