CPM Insights: Does Your Strategic Planning Process Include Scenarios? How About A, B, and C Plans?
You have developed the strategic plan, but have you considered probabilistic or Monte Carlo simulations to deal with today’s uncertainty? What is the probability the economy will turn around in Q3, Q4? The DC pundits would have you believe things with 100 percent certainty, but as a business executive, what do you think? Fifty percent? More? Less?
Or have you planned for continued contractions of 1, 4, or 8 percent? Scary scenarios, but have you done a reality check with your customers, their expectations? We are currently collaborating with a utility, and they have always considered their load growth, electricity consumption, of between 1 and 3 percent per year as a given for strategic and financial planning. BUT, they were shocked to see their load growth contract 3 percent!! Does this resonate with your company? So, what do we do? more








