The Risks of Traditional Forecasting
Are (traditional) forecasts meaningful?
Coauthors Frederick Funston and Stephen Wagner ask this question early in their new book Surviving and Thriving in Uncertainty: Creating the Risk Intelligent Enterprise.
They pose the question in a chapter that describes why, and how, conventional risk management has failed.
“The record of forecasting in business, investing, and economics is not good, particularly when it comes to crises, which are by definition improbable and, well, unpredictable,” Funston and Wagner write.
In other words, the failure of conventional forecasting is a prime reason why conventional risk management has failed. more








